Risk Analysis and Contingency Planning for Lebanon NCD Programs - DRC


The cascading economic crisis unfolding in Lebanon since 2019 has undermined key infrastructure and pillars of national security, particularly in the health sector.

Fuel and medicine shortages have limited health services capacity to function, and declining purchasing power has reduced access to healthy food for large parts of the population. In this context the treatment and prevention of non-communicable diseases face great challenges. The Danish Refugee Council commissioned Triangle to conduct an analysis of potential scenarios for the impact of Lebanon’s crisis on non-communicable disease (NCD) programming.

Triangle’s Analysis

Triangle’s report provided a context analysis divided across political, macroeconomic, security, governance and service delivery, and geopolitical factors, with special attention to the health sector, particularly health services delivery and  NCDs. It then outlined likely scenarios for the future of the crisis, accompanied by relevant indicators. The report includes an in-depth cross-impact analysis on the health sector, and on NCD programs specifically.

The report also provided a DRC-specific risk analysis and contingency plan, outlining a set of key programmatic considerations, recommendations, and a risk matrix for DRC NCD programs.



Risk Analysis and Contingency Planning for Lebanon NCD Programs – DRC


January 2021 – April 2021

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